An excellent analysis. I agree that the Gabbert study is seriously flawed. However, the animal experiment model evidence is definitely suggestive in the other direction. But besides the obvious objection that these animals, even the primates, aren’t human, there is also the fact that these were caged animals.
On the other hand, the negative evidence from the U.S. Army study is not very convincing either. Unless things have changed dramatically since my day, obesity is not exactly tolerated there and exercise is not considered optional.
Hmm … having read the study, now, I have to disagree with your earlier remark:
On the other hand, the negative evidence from the U.S. Army study is not very convincing either. Unless things have changed dramatically since my day, obesity is not exactly tolerated there and exercise is not considered optional.
These factors would seem to create the opposite implication: that those found to be obese in the U.S. Army would be disproportionately those who are obese for non-behavioral reasons.
Hmmm. Having read it myself now, I am now very confused. I strongly recommend that everyone participating in this case study read this US military study before making up their mind. PM me (or RobinZ?) with your email address and I will email you a copy.
Elsewhere in this thread, Wei Dai took me to task for suggesting that epistemic rationality was a “solved problem”. He was right. It occurs to me that as I recently tried to slog my way through Pearl, I learned that there was still controversy as to the proper way to handle confounding variables. ERV’s criticisms definitely showed that the
Ad-36 proponents weren’t properly handling the confounding variable of age.
This US military study convinces me that they are not properly handling the confounding variables of sex and race/ethnicity. I’m almost tempted to conclude that all of the human subject evidence of the Ad-36/obesity link is practically worthless for this reason.
But there is another reason for looking at the military study. They find that past the age of 27 or so, the number of Ad-36 positives among their population falls. That suggests that it may be the case that widespread exposure of humans to Ad-36 may be a recent thing. Which is interesting because the worldwide “obesity epidemic” also seems to be a recent thing.
You have the text (pdf) of that study? Could you PM it to me?
I guess I was making the assumption that even Ad-36 positives would be able to combat obesity if sufficiently motivated to exercise. But, having reread the abstract now, I regret my criticism—when I made the criticism I was thinking that they were comparing non-obese individuals of varying BMI.
An excellent analysis. I agree that the Gabbert study is seriously flawed. However, the animal experiment model evidence is definitely suggestive in the other direction. But besides the obvious objection that these animals, even the primates, aren’t human, there is also the fact that these were caged animals.
On the other hand, the negative evidence from the U.S. Army study is not very convincing either. Unless things have changed dramatically since my day, obesity is not exactly tolerated there and exercise is not considered optional.
What U.S. Army study?
This one. Sorry about that.
Hmm … having read the study, now, I have to disagree with your earlier remark:
These factors would seem to create the opposite implication: that those found to be obese in the U.S. Army would be disproportionately those who are obese for non-behavioral reasons.
Hmmm. Having read it myself now, I am now very confused. I strongly recommend that everyone participating in this case study read this US military study before making up their mind. PM me (or RobinZ?) with your email address and I will email you a copy.
Elsewhere in this thread, Wei Dai took me to task for suggesting that epistemic rationality was a “solved problem”. He was right. It occurs to me that as I recently tried to slog my way through Pearl, I learned that there was still controversy as to the proper way to handle confounding variables. ERV’s criticisms definitely showed that the Ad-36 proponents weren’t properly handling the confounding variable of age. This US military study convinces me that they are not properly handling the confounding variables of sex and race/ethnicity. I’m almost tempted to conclude that all of the human subject evidence of the Ad-36/obesity link is practically worthless for this reason.
But there is another reason for looking at the military study. They find that past the age of 27 or so, the number of Ad-36 positives among their population falls. That suggests that it may be the case that widespread exposure of humans to Ad-36 may be a recent thing. Which is interesting because the worldwide “obesity epidemic” also seems to be a recent thing.
You have the text (pdf) of that study? Could you PM it to me?
I guess I was making the assumption that even Ad-36 positives would be able to combat obesity if sufficiently motivated to exercise. But, having reread the abstract now, I regret my criticism—when I made the criticism I was thinking that they were comparing non-obese individuals of varying BMI.
I didn’t think you could PM files—if you want to PM an email address, I can get it for you that way.
Done.