Let me refocus on my point. I want to estimate the probability my vote will matter.
With population n, participation rate v, and pre-election polling showing r support for the policy, the probability your vote will matter is equal to:
(C[nv/2,nr]C[nv/2,n(1-r)])/C[n,nv]
Let me refocus on my point. I want to estimate the probability my vote will matter.
With population n, participation rate v, and pre-election polling showing r support for the policy, the probability your vote will matter is equal to:
(C[nv/2,nr]C[nv/2,n(1-r)])/C[n,nv]