I’m retracting this one in favor of my other answer:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/3dy/solve_psykoshs_nonanthropic_problem/d9r4
So saying “yea” gives 0.9 1000 + 0.1 100 = 910 expected donation.
This is simply wrong.
If you are a decider then the coin is 90% likely to have come up tails. Correct.
But it simply doesn’t follow from this that the expected donation if you say yes is 0.9*1000 + 0.1*100 = 910.
To the contrary, the original formula is still true: 0.5*1000 + 0.5*100 = 550
So you should stil say “nay” and of course hope that everyone else is as smart as you.
Some of your asterisks are being interpreted as signifying italics when you wanted them to be displayed to signify multiplication. You might want to edit your comment and put backslashes in front of them or something.
With backslashes: 1\*2\*3 appears as 1*2*3.
Without backslashes: 1*2*3 appears as 123.
I’m retracting this one in favor of my other answer:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/3dy/solve_psykoshs_nonanthropic_problem/d9r4
This is simply wrong.
If you are a decider then the coin is 90% likely to have come up tails. Correct.
But it simply doesn’t follow from this that the expected donation if you say yes is 0.9*1000 + 0.1*100 = 910.
To the contrary, the original formula is still true: 0.5*1000 + 0.5*100 = 550
So you should stil say “nay” and of course hope that everyone else is as smart as you.
Some of your asterisks are being interpreted as signifying italics when you wanted them to be displayed to signify multiplication. You might want to edit your comment and put backslashes in front of them or something.
With backslashes: 1\*2\*3 appears as 1*2*3.
Without backslashes: 1*2*3 appears as 123.