Damn, another one of my old comments and this one has a mistake. If we hold all of the other individuals fixed on the tails plan, then there’s a 100% chance that if you choose heads that no money is donated.
But also, UDT can just point out Bayesian updates only work within the scope of problems solvable by CDT. When agents’ decisions are linked, you need something like UDT and UDT doesn’t do any updates.
(Timeless decision theory may or may not do updates, but can’t handle the fact that choosing Yay means that your clones choose Yay when they are the sole decider. If you could make all agents choose Yay when your were a decider, but all choose Nay when you weren’t you’d score higher on average, but of course the linkage doesn’t work this way as their decision is based on what they see, not on what you see. This is the same issue that it has with Counterfactual Mugging).
Further update: Do you want to cause good to be done or do you want to be in a be in a world where good is done? That’s basically what this question comes down to.
Damn, another one of my old comments and this one has a mistake. If we hold all of the other individuals fixed on the tails plan, then there’s a 100% chance that if you choose heads that no money is donated.
But also, UDT can just point out Bayesian updates only work within the scope of problems solvable by CDT. When agents’ decisions are linked, you need something like UDT and UDT doesn’t do any updates.
(Timeless decision theory may or may not do updates, but can’t handle the fact that choosing Yay means that your clones choose Yay when they are the sole decider. If you could make all agents choose Yay when your were a decider, but all choose Nay when you weren’t you’d score higher on average, but of course the linkage doesn’t work this way as their decision is based on what they see, not on what you see. This is the same issue that it has with Counterfactual Mugging).
Further update: Do you want to cause good to be done or do you want to be in a be in a world where good is done? That’s basically what this question comes down to.