FWIW, it predicts roughly similar growth in model size, energy cost and GPU count than described in https://situational-awareness.ai/ while being created the week before this was released.
I spent like 10 hours on this, so I expect to find lingering mistakes in the model.
Will we get to GPT-5 and GPT-6 soon?
This is a straightforward “follow the trend” model which tries to forecast when GPT-N-equivalent models will be first trained and deployed up to 2030.
Baseline forecast:
GPT-4.7GPT-5.3GPT-5.8GPT-6.32024.42025.52026.52028.52025.22026.820282030.2Bullish forecast:
GPT-5GPT-5.5GPT-6GPT-6.52024.420252026.52028.52025.22026.520282030FWIW, it predicts roughly similar growth in model size, energy cost and GPU count than described in https://situational-awareness.ai/ while being created the week before this was released.
I spent like 10 hours on this, so I expect to find lingering mistakes in the model.