who on lesswrong tracks their predictions outside of predictionbook, and their thoughts on that method
Just adding to the other responses: I also use Metaculus and like it a lot. In another thread, I posted a rough note about its community’s calibration.
Compared to PredictionBook, the major limitation of Metaculus is that users cannot create and predict on arbitrary questions, because questions are curated. This is an inherent limitation/feature for a website like Metaculus because they want the community to focus on a set of questions of general interest. In Metaculus’s case, ‘general interest’ translates mostly to ‘science and technology’; for questions on politics, I suggest taking a look at GJ Open instead.
Just adding to the other responses: I also use Metaculus and like it a lot. In another thread, I posted a rough note about its community’s calibration.
Compared to PredictionBook, the major limitation of Metaculus is that users cannot create and predict on arbitrary questions, because questions are curated. This is an inherent limitation/feature for a website like Metaculus because they want the community to focus on a set of questions of general interest. In Metaculus’s case, ‘general interest’ translates mostly to ‘science and technology’; for questions on politics, I suggest taking a look at GJ Open instead.