2. We want that government bureaucrats who make predictions about the future makes them in a way where the accuracy of their predictions gets measured.
This sounds like it might be a good idea in principle but it might not be a good idea in practice, depending on exactly how the new system ends up incentivizing the bureaucrats. E.g. if their accuracy just gets measured but nobody pays attention to the measurement then this is useless; or if they can somehow Goodhart the metric then that could cause worse outcomes than having no metric.
This sounds like it might be a good idea in principle but it might not be a good idea in practice, depending on exactly how the new system ends up incentivizing the bureaucrats. E.g. if their accuracy just gets measured but nobody pays attention to the measurement then this is useless; or if they can somehow Goodhart the metric then that could cause worse outcomes than having no metric.