I think a crux here is that even conditional on your ideas working IRL, I think that in practice, there will only be 3-4 AGIs by the big labs, and plausibly limited to Deepmind, OpenAI and Anthropic, because of the power and energy cost of training future AIs will become a huge bottleneck by 2030.
Another way to say it is I think open-source will just totally lose the race to AGI, so I only consider the actors of Meta, Deepmind, Anthropic and OpenAI as relevant actors for several years, so these are the only actors that could actually execute on your ideas even if they proliferated.
I think a crux here is that even conditional on your ideas working IRL, I think that in practice, there will only be 3-4 AGIs by the big labs, and plausibly limited to Deepmind, OpenAI and Anthropic, because of the power and energy cost of training future AIs will become a huge bottleneck by 2030.
Another way to say it is I think open-source will just totally lose the race to AGI, so I only consider the actors of Meta, Deepmind, Anthropic and OpenAI as relevant actors for several years, so these are the only actors that could actually execute on your ideas even if they proliferated.