In particular, I think you might need to catch many escape attempts before you can make a strong case for shutting down. (For concreteness, I mostly imagine situations where we need to catch the model trying to escape 30 times.)
So instead of leaving the race once the models start scheming against you, you keep going to gather more instances of scheming until you can finally convince people? As an outside reader of that story I’d just be screaming at the protagonists that clearly everyone can see where this is going where scheming attempt number 11 is just good enough to be successful. And in the worlds where we catch them 30 times successfully it feels like people would argue: this is clear evidence that the models aren’t “actually dangerous” yet, so let’s keep scaling “responsibly”.
So instead of leaving the race once the models start scheming against you, you keep going to gather more instances of scheming until you can finally convince people? As an outside reader of that story I’d just be screaming at the protagonists that clearly everyone can see where this is going where scheming attempt number 11 is just good enough to be successful. And in the worlds where we catch them 30 times successfully it feels like people would argue: this is clear evidence that the models aren’t “actually dangerous” yet, so let’s keep scaling “responsibly”.