Nice summary! My subjective experience participating as an expert was that I was able to convince quite a few people to update towards greater risk by giving them some considerations that they had not thought of (and also by clearing up misinterpretations of the questions). But I guess in the scheme of things, it was not that much overall change.
What I wanted was a way to quantify what fraction of human cognition has been superseded by the most general-purpose AI at any given time. My impression is that that has risen from under 1% a decade ago, to somewhere around 10% in 2022, with a growth rate that looks faster than linear. I’ve failed so far at translating those impressions into solid evidence.
This is similar to my question of what percent of tasks AI is superhuman at. Then I was thinking if we have some idea what percent of tasks AI will become superhuman at in the next generation (e.g. GPT5), and how many tasks the AI would need to be superhuman at in order to take over the world, we might be able to get some estimate of the risk of the next generation.
Nice summary! My subjective experience participating as an expert was that I was able to convince quite a few people to update towards greater risk by giving them some considerations that they had not thought of (and also by clearing up misinterpretations of the questions). But I guess in the scheme of things, it was not that much overall change.
This is similar to my question of what percent of tasks AI is superhuman at. Then I was thinking if we have some idea what percent of tasks AI will become superhuman at in the next generation (e.g. GPT5), and how many tasks the AI would need to be superhuman at in order to take over the world, we might be able to get some estimate of the risk of the next generation.