“Optimism” certainly isn’t the same as a neutral, balanced view of possibilities. It is an expression of the belief that things will go well despite clear signs of danger (e.g. the often expressed concerns of leading AI safety experts).
I just disagree, I think the term has many “valid” uses, and one is to refer to an object level belief that things will likely turn out pretty well. It doesn’t need to be irrational by definition.
I also think AI safety experts are self selected to be more pessimistic, and that my personal epistemic situation is at least as good as theirs on this issue, so I’m not bothered that I’m more optimistic than the median safety researcher. I also have a fairly good “error theory” for why many people are overly pessimistic, which will be elucidated in upcoming posts.
I think the term has many “valid” uses, and one is to refer to an object level belief that things will likely turn out pretty well. It doesn’t need to be irrational by definition.
Agreed. Like I said, you may have used the term in a way different from my definition. But I think in many cases, the term does reflect an attitude like I defined it. See Wikipedia.
I also think AI safety experts are self selected to be more pessimistic
This may also be true. In any case, I hope that Quintin and you are right and I’m wrong. But that doesn’t make me sleep better.
I just disagree, I think the term has many “valid” uses, and one is to refer to an object level belief that things will likely turn out pretty well. It doesn’t need to be irrational by definition.
I also think AI safety experts are self selected to be more pessimistic, and that my personal epistemic situation is at least as good as theirs on this issue, so I’m not bothered that I’m more optimistic than the median safety researcher. I also have a fairly good “error theory” for why many people are overly pessimistic, which will be elucidated in upcoming posts.
Agreed. Like I said, you may have used the term in a way different from my definition. But I think in many cases, the term does reflect an attitude like I defined it. See Wikipedia.
This may also be true. In any case, I hope that Quintin and you are right and I’m wrong. But that doesn’t make me sleep better.