I agree that is is a well-defined question, though not easily answered without knowing how guessing physically affects flipping the coin, reading the results (humans are notoriously prone to making mistakes like that) and so on. But I suspect that Nisan is asking something else, though I am not quite sure what. The post says
In real life, we have a causal model of the world that tells us that the first counterfactual is correct. But we don’t have anything like that for logical uncertainty; the best we have is logical induction, which just give us a joint distribution.
I am not sure how physical uncertainty is different from logical uncertainty, maybe there are some standard examples there that could help the uninitiated like myself.
I agree that is is a well-defined question, though not easily answered without knowing how guessing physically affects flipping the coin, reading the results (humans are notoriously prone to making mistakes like that) and so on. But I suspect that Nisan is asking something else, though I am not quite sure what. The post says
I am not sure how physical uncertainty is different from logical uncertainty, maybe there are some standard examples there that could help the uninitiated like myself.