Villiam Said “Maybe it’s different for other people, but I have trouble imagining a person who could make millions—I mean really has the necessary skills, both external and internal; not just imagines having them to raise self-esteem—and just avoids it because they see absolutely no benefit in doing so. If someone told me they are that person, I would still give them 99% chance to just rationalize.”
That depends on several factors. I do not posses millions. I do possess more money than the average american savings (which is not hard to do, $500! , but I mean I have enough to live 2 or 3 years). I guess I have 40% chance of making millions if I wanted. 55% of making a single million. and the rest distributed.
But do you know (I assume you know, most people do) how long it takes to do that? Do you know how much energy, time, and effort must be spent to obtain those millions? There are friends of mine working 12 hours a day to make $6000,00 per month, the beggining of a career that could very well end up giving them millions by the time they are 45-60.
Now what has the wisdom of the ages (namely, positive psychology) taught us? The most important thing, for longevity and for happiness, is having 5-6 close friends and 1+ girlfriend/date/wife/bodyfriend. It is just a tiny bit more important than not smoking. I think, if you do the math, that this is actually more healthy than having health insurance, but would not confirm. I know it gives you a bit more than 12 extra years (which is what not smoking does).
So I didn’t make the choice (not yet at least) of trying to go there and make millions. I would probably try doing it the Tim Ferriss way (because it is for personalities similar to the ones aimed at by The Mistery Method, a PUA book that I have mastered when I felt like teaching PUA back in the day). I might be able to, but I didn’t.
Instead I look forward to the next awesome posts in LW, I interact with the Effective Altruist Community. Direct a Transhumanist institution in Brazil www.ierfh.org , read the best philosophers ever (Russell, Dennett, Bostrom, Nietzsche, Hofstadter, Pinker, David Lewis, Chalmers, Putnam etc...). Try helping X-risk, find tickets for free for strange trips around the world (there are loads) bikeride to the university to learn Norvig’s AI book, pretend to be doing a masters of a book I’ve already written.
And some personal stuff I don’t want to disclose here.
Now, do you blame me for not trying to make millions while I’m young?
Just curious: If you would precommit to never work more than 40 hours a week, but otherwise you would try your best, what is the probability you could make millions? Not just you personally, but any rather intelligent and rational person.
I understand why having friends, families, experience, or just enough time to relax, is more important than making millions. My question is how much of a dichotomy it really is; in other words whether refusing to work 16 hours a day, for decades is the true rejection, or just a socially acceptable excuse.
I don’t know whether working really smart and hard 40 hours a week is enough or not to make millions. Or more precisely, I believe it is possible, but the important question is how probable it is. So far I can just say I don’t seem to have the personality traits necessary to work really smart and hard 40 hours a week for long time periods. Which I classify under “not having necessary skills”. But I believe that assuming the necessary skills, it is possible and decently probable (I just have almost zero evidence to support this belief, so I am not very confident about it).
That depends a lot on what I did the hours that don’t belong to the 39 hours of work. Depends on my interests, social life, who I know, which contacts I may have, my natural networking ability. I think your question was general, so my response is “depends on the person”
If it was personal to me: I’d probably pull off one million with high certainty, and several 25% would be my expectation. Meaning how much money would be in the bank when I looked at it when I was 55 years old.
The more relevant issue though is what is the 10% for a given person. Is my best 10% both in luck and effort around 5 millions? 15 millions?
I won’t elaborate much, sorry, but israel, buddhist monasteries, wealthy institutions, cryonics, puneet sahani… are all cryptic info that might lead you to some. I can only show you the door, you are the one who will have to walk through it.
But seriously now, I bet mormons and all those wacky religions in the US might have exploitable things. Universities frequently do as well (if you are in a free governmental University)
Villiam Said “Maybe it’s different for other people, but I have trouble imagining a person who could make millions—I mean really has the necessary skills, both external and internal; not just imagines having them to raise self-esteem—and just avoids it because they see absolutely no benefit in doing so. If someone told me they are that person, I would still give them 99% chance to just rationalize.”
That depends on several factors. I do not posses millions. I do possess more money than the average american savings (which is not hard to do, $500! , but I mean I have enough to live 2 or 3 years). I guess I have 40% chance of making millions if I wanted. 55% of making a single million. and the rest distributed.
But do you know (I assume you know, most people do) how long it takes to do that? Do you know how much energy, time, and effort must be spent to obtain those millions? There are friends of mine working 12 hours a day to make $6000,00 per month, the beggining of a career that could very well end up giving them millions by the time they are 45-60.
Now what has the wisdom of the ages (namely, positive psychology) taught us? The most important thing, for longevity and for happiness, is having 5-6 close friends and 1+ girlfriend/date/wife/bodyfriend. It is just a tiny bit more important than not smoking. I think, if you do the math, that this is actually more healthy than having health insurance, but would not confirm. I know it gives you a bit more than 12 extra years (which is what not smoking does).
So I didn’t make the choice (not yet at least) of trying to go there and make millions. I would probably try doing it the Tim Ferriss way (because it is for personalities similar to the ones aimed at by The Mistery Method, a PUA book that I have mastered when I felt like teaching PUA back in the day). I might be able to, but I didn’t.
Instead I look forward to the next awesome posts in LW, I interact with the Effective Altruist Community. Direct a Transhumanist institution in Brazil www.ierfh.org , read the best philosophers ever (Russell, Dennett, Bostrom, Nietzsche, Hofstadter, Pinker, David Lewis, Chalmers, Putnam etc...). Try helping X-risk, find tickets for free for strange trips around the world (there are loads) bikeride to the university to learn Norvig’s AI book, pretend to be doing a masters of a book I’ve already written.
And some personal stuff I don’t want to disclose here. Now, do you blame me for not trying to make millions while I’m young?
Just curious: If you would precommit to never work more than 40 hours a week, but otherwise you would try your best, what is the probability you could make millions? Not just you personally, but any rather intelligent and rational person.
I understand why having friends, families, experience, or just enough time to relax, is more important than making millions. My question is how much of a dichotomy it really is; in other words whether refusing to work 16 hours a day, for decades is the true rejection, or just a socially acceptable excuse.
I don’t know whether working really smart and hard 40 hours a week is enough or not to make millions. Or more precisely, I believe it is possible, but the important question is how probable it is. So far I can just say I don’t seem to have the personality traits necessary to work really smart and hard 40 hours a week for long time periods. Which I classify under “not having necessary skills”. But I believe that assuming the necessary skills, it is possible and decently probable (I just have almost zero evidence to support this belief, so I am not very confident about it).
That depends a lot on what I did the hours that don’t belong to the 39 hours of work. Depends on my interests, social life, who I know, which contacts I may have, my natural networking ability. I think your question was general, so my response is “depends on the person”
If it was personal to me: I’d probably pull off one million with high certainty, and several 25% would be my expectation. Meaning how much money would be in the bank when I looked at it when I was 55 years old.
The more relevant issue though is what is the 10% for a given person. Is my best 10% both in luck and effort around 5 millions? 15 millions?
Is anyone’s 10% billions?
How well controlled is that for correlation vs causation?
Unsure, but 5-6 is much more than the girfriend thing, as far as I recall.
Ask user joaolkf, maybe he remembers. http://lesswrong.com/user/joaolkf/
Can you please elaborate?
I won’t elaborate much, sorry, but israel, buddhist monasteries, wealthy institutions, cryonics, puneet sahani… are all cryptic info that might lead you to some. I can only show you the door, you are the one who will have to walk through it.
But seriously now, I bet mormons and all those wacky religions in the US might have exploitable things. Universities frequently do as well (if you are in a free governmental University)