Yes, near the extremes it makes a difference—but we’re using a Brier scoring rule, averaged over all days a forecast is open. That makes thinking in logs less important − 99% isn’t much worse than 100% on errors. I’ll discuss that in pt.2 under ‘loss function’.
Yes, near the extremes it makes a difference—but we’re using a Brier scoring rule, averaged over all days a forecast is open. That makes thinking in logs less important − 99% isn’t much worse than 100% on errors. I’ll discuss that in pt.2 under ‘loss function’.
Hooray!