My answer is roughly the same as TimS’s… it mostly depends on “Would TraderJoe pick a true statement in this context or a false one?” Which in turn mostly depends on “Would a randomly selected LWer pick a true statement in this context or a false one?” since I don’t know much about you as a distinct individual.
I seem to have a prior probability somewhat above 50% for “true”, though thinking about it I’m not sure why exactly that is.
Looking it up, it amuses me to discover that I’m still not sure if it’s true.
I assume you mean without looking it up.
My answer is roughly the same as TimS’s… it mostly depends on “Would TraderJoe pick a true statement in this context or a false one?” Which in turn mostly depends on “Would a randomly selected LWer pick a true statement in this context or a false one?” since I don’t know much about you as a distinct individual.
I seem to have a prior probability somewhat above 50% for “true”, though thinking about it I’m not sure why exactly that is.
Looking it up, it amuses me to discover that I’m still not sure if it’s true.