Carl, it looks like we have a pretty substantial disagreement about key properties of the appropriate prior distribution over expected value of one’s actions.
I am not sure whether you are literally endorsing a particular distribution (I am not sure whether “Solomonoff complexity prior” is sufficiently well-defined or, if so, whether you are endorsing that or a varied/adjusted version). I myself have not endorsed a particular distribution. So it seems like the right way to resolve our disagreement is for at least one of us to be more specific about what properties are core to our argument and why we believe any reasonable prior ought to have these properties. I’m not sure when I will be able to do this on my end and will likely contact you by email when I do.
What I do not agree with is the implication that my analysis is irrelevant to Pascal’s Mugging. It may be irrelevant for people who endorse the sorts of priors you endorse. But not everyone agrees with you about what the proper prior looks like, and many people who are closer to me on what the appropriate prior looks like still seem unaware of the implications for Pascal’s Mugging. If nothing else, my analysis highlights a relationship between one’s prior distribution and Pascal’s Mugging that I believe many others weren’t aware of. Whether it is a decisive refutation of Pascal’s Mugging is unresolved (and depends on the disagreement I refer to above).
Carl, it looks like we have a pretty substantial disagreement about key properties of the appropriate prior distribution over expected value of one’s actions.
I am not sure whether you are literally endorsing a particular distribution (I am not sure whether “Solomonoff complexity prior” is sufficiently well-defined or, if so, whether you are endorsing that or a varied/adjusted version). I myself have not endorsed a particular distribution. So it seems like the right way to resolve our disagreement is for at least one of us to be more specific about what properties are core to our argument and why we believe any reasonable prior ought to have these properties. I’m not sure when I will be able to do this on my end and will likely contact you by email when I do.
What I do not agree with is the implication that my analysis is irrelevant to Pascal’s Mugging. It may be irrelevant for people who endorse the sorts of priors you endorse. But not everyone agrees with you about what the proper prior looks like, and many people who are closer to me on what the appropriate prior looks like still seem unaware of the implications for Pascal’s Mugging. If nothing else, my analysis highlights a relationship between one’s prior distribution and Pascal’s Mugging that I believe many others weren’t aware of. Whether it is a decisive refutation of Pascal’s Mugging is unresolved (and depends on the disagreement I refer to above).