I’m generally reluctant to assign exact probabilities to topics like these; I consider it a sin, like giving five many significant digits on something you cannot calculate to 1 part in 10,000 precision.
We should be assigning error bars to our probabilities? A cute idea—but surely life is too short for that.
From E.Y on the same page, we have this:
We should be assigning error bars to our probabilities? A cute idea—but surely life is too short for that.