I agree that “spread out probability mass” is a good technical replacement for “I don’t know.” Note that the more spread out it is, the less concentrated it is in the near future. That is, the less confident you are betting on this particular random variable (time until human extinction), the safer you should feel from human extinction.
“50% before 2040” doesn’t sound like such a high-entropy RV to me, though...
I agree that “spread out probability mass” is a good technical replacement for “I don’t know.” Note that the more spread out it is, the less concentrated it is in the near future. That is, the less confident you are betting on this particular random variable (time until human extinction), the safer you should feel from human extinction.
“50% before 2040” doesn’t sound like such a high-entropy RV to me, though...