This is a game I play often when it comes to estimating time—probably the most frequent estimation that I conduct in day-to-day life. When on a New York City subway, for instance, I’ll make a 50% confidence range guess on how long it will take the subway to get to my stop. The game works equally well when waiting for a light to change, a lecture to end, an elevator to arrive, etc.
I started doing this at a fairly young age when—in response to asking “are we there yet,”—my parents told me to guess how long it would take to reach a travel destination.
This is a game I play often when it comes to estimating time—probably the most frequent estimation that I conduct in day-to-day life. When on a New York City subway, for instance, I’ll make a 50% confidence range guess on how long it will take the subway to get to my stop. The game works equally well when waiting for a light to change, a lecture to end, an elevator to arrive, etc.
I started doing this at a fairly young age when—in response to asking “are we there yet,”—my parents told me to guess how long it would take to reach a travel destination.
Great examples. Next step is calibrating the confidence range based on multiple experiments.