So, my point is that the independence axiom still holds. (.5A + .5B) is preferable to (.5A + .5C), where A, B, and C are world-histories where you know what’s going to happen in advance. And (.5A″ + .5C″) is preferable to (.5A’ + .5B’), where A’, B’, A″, and C″ are world-histories that involve periods of uncertainty. There is no violation of the VNM axioms.
A’, B’: You’re uncertain for a while whether you’ll go to Ecuador or whether you’ll get a laptop.
A″, C″: You’re uncertain where you will go.
A steelmanning of your position would be that a good decision-making heuristic should take into account not simply the assets that will eventually be made available to you, but the assets you’ll realistically be able to take advantage of.
So, my point is that the independence axiom still holds. (.5A + .5B) is preferable to (.5A + .5C), where A, B, and C are world-histories where you know what’s going to happen in advance. And (.5A″ + .5C″) is preferable to (.5A’ + .5B’), where A’, B’, A″, and C″ are world-histories that involve periods of uncertainty. There is no violation of the VNM axioms.
A’, B’: You’re uncertain for a while whether you’ll go to Ecuador or whether you’ll get a laptop.
A″, C″: You’re uncertain where you will go.
A steelmanning of your position would be that a good decision-making heuristic should take into account not simply the assets that will eventually be made available to you, but the assets you’ll realistically be able to take advantage of.