So after reading this and the comments, here is what I think: People are right that when you bundle in preparation and time delays with the uncertainty, what you’re stating is not actually an example of the paradox, because the situation is more complex than actually being a choice between 3 fungible options. On the other hand, I think you’re right if you’re pointing out that in real life you normally don’t HAVE 3 fungible options, and especially due to time and uncertainty considerations like the ones you specify, a lot of seemingly fungible options do not in fact funge. The allais paradox is an example of taking common sense thinking about the way to make YOUR kind of choices and applying it to a situation where the extra stuff that’s present in reality is not actually relevant, thus the paradox.
So after reading this and the comments, here is what I think: People are right that when you bundle in preparation and time delays with the uncertainty, what you’re stating is not actually an example of the paradox, because the situation is more complex than actually being a choice between 3 fungible options. On the other hand, I think you’re right if you’re pointing out that in real life you normally don’t HAVE 3 fungible options, and especially due to time and uncertainty considerations like the ones you specify, a lot of seemingly fungible options do not in fact funge. The allais paradox is an example of taking common sense thinking about the way to make YOUR kind of choices and applying it to a situation where the extra stuff that’s present in reality is not actually relevant, thus the paradox.