Re your first paragraph: polygenic scores that directly predict cognitive ability are also being selected against. Polygenic scores designed to predict very high intelligence also turn out to be good at predicting ordinary intelligence, so it doesn’t seem likely that “Einsteins” work in some fundamentally different way [1].
I agree that ironing out “errors” could be risky, especially given the current state of our knowledge. But equally, that does not imply that it’s no big deal if people’s genetics are getting less healthy or smart. There are two risks here.
I agree that we should consider changing phenotypes (e.g. the Flynn effect) as well as changing genes. It could be that speaking loosely, the phenotypic improvement will overwhelm the genotypic decline. But that isn’t certain. Genes and environment could interact in complex ways. It’s not guaranteed that better environments will be a perfect substitute for genetic endowments.
Lastly, I definitely don’t support the deliberate elimination of “less functional people”.
[1] Zabaneh, D., Krapohl, E., Gaspar, H.A., Curtis, C., Lee, S.H., Patel, H., Newhouse, S., Wu, H.M., Simpson, M.A., Putallaz, M. and Lubinski, D., 2018. A genome-wide association study for extremely high intelligence. Molecular psychiatry, 23(5), pp.1226-1232.
So instead of pointing in different directions the other indicators point in the same direction.
A belief that “humanity stays extant because of our intelligence” might be common but it might have ideological roots. Say for reference there was the property of being tall, being able to derive calories from food and being smart. A society that would be fearful and taking precautions to avoid evolving tall would seem silly. Being able to derive calories from food seems like it could have a connection of thriving and the extinction chances of pandas would suggest that it is possible to go extinct via that route.
If we were following singularity narratives we might argue that intelligence without allignment would be dangerous and if we found that kidness (or any aligment analog) is being selected with the cost of intelligence we could use this to argue that “even nature agrees with us”. If we condem societies that do not take it as a problem to become/upkeep being kind and are ambivalent whether they guard against stupidity that would still be more of an expression of our values rather than application of fact. And that basic situation doesn’t chance if we condem based on intelligence upkeep.
On average features that are being selected for tend to ward of extinction even thought every extinct species has evolved to that dead end. Because most species can only directly think about survival of individuals, family units and herds there is no “artifical selection” for evolution direction. However if we become able to see where the direction is going then we can choose to conciously make our own mistakes and the helm and steer it or not. We are already enduring unconcious evolution so I would be very careful about beliefs that think they can one up that. But lets be clear that if we steer we wil be going where we are steering and not neccesarily where it would be good for us to go. On that level handing out free cash is on equally suspect level as murdersprees if the goal is to have an impact on prosperity direction.
Re your first paragraph: polygenic scores that directly predict cognitive ability are also being selected against. Polygenic scores designed to predict very high intelligence also turn out to be good at predicting ordinary intelligence, so it doesn’t seem likely that “Einsteins” work in some fundamentally different way [1].
I agree that ironing out “errors” could be risky, especially given the current state of our knowledge. But equally, that does not imply that it’s no big deal if people’s genetics are getting less healthy or smart. There are two risks here.
I agree that we should consider changing phenotypes (e.g. the Flynn effect) as well as changing genes. It could be that speaking loosely, the phenotypic improvement will overwhelm the genotypic decline. But that isn’t certain. Genes and environment could interact in complex ways. It’s not guaranteed that better environments will be a perfect substitute for genetic endowments.
Lastly, I definitely don’t support the deliberate elimination of “less functional people”.
[1] Zabaneh, D., Krapohl, E., Gaspar, H.A., Curtis, C., Lee, S.H., Patel, H., Newhouse, S., Wu, H.M., Simpson, M.A., Putallaz, M. and Lubinski, D., 2018. A genome-wide association study for extremely high intelligence. Molecular psychiatry, 23(5), pp.1226-1232.
So instead of pointing in different directions the other indicators point in the same direction.
A belief that “humanity stays extant because of our intelligence” might be common but it might have ideological roots. Say for reference there was the property of being tall, being able to derive calories from food and being smart. A society that would be fearful and taking precautions to avoid evolving tall would seem silly. Being able to derive calories from food seems like it could have a connection of thriving and the extinction chances of pandas would suggest that it is possible to go extinct via that route.
If we were following singularity narratives we might argue that intelligence without allignment would be dangerous and if we found that kidness (or any aligment analog) is being selected with the cost of intelligence we could use this to argue that “even nature agrees with us”. If we condem societies that do not take it as a problem to become/upkeep being kind and are ambivalent whether they guard against stupidity that would still be more of an expression of our values rather than application of fact. And that basic situation doesn’t chance if we condem based on intelligence upkeep.
On average features that are being selected for tend to ward of extinction even thought every extinct species has evolved to that dead end. Because most species can only directly think about survival of individuals, family units and herds there is no “artifical selection” for evolution direction. However if we become able to see where the direction is going then we can choose to conciously make our own mistakes and the helm and steer it or not. We are already enduring unconcious evolution so I would be very careful about beliefs that think they can one up that. But lets be clear that if we steer we wil be going where we are steering and not neccesarily where it would be good for us to go. On that level handing out free cash is on equally suspect level as murdersprees if the goal is to have an impact on prosperity direction.