Your calculation is worthless because it fails to consider the probability that you’re incorrectly updating. The solution is to consider the probability that you’re incorrectly updating.
If you are required to assume that you’re correctly updating, but it’s a real life situation where you aren’t, then there is no solution because you have assumed something false.
That assumption may be such an unreasonable assumption in a real-life situation that it makes the conclusion worthless to use in real life.
Okay. You decide your calculations are worthless. How do you decide how to proceed?
Your calculation is worthless because it fails to consider the probability that you’re incorrectly updating. The solution is to consider the probability that you’re incorrectly updating.
If you are required to assume that you’re correctly updating, but it’s a real life situation where you aren’t, then there is no solution because you have assumed something false.