Ooh. As long as I’m making predictions, I believe Romney will defy the polls and win. 65% chance I’m right.
The economy is doing poorly.
Obama is an incumbent.
Romney is taller.
I think polls (and 538) are overestimating what Democratic participation will be like.
These are the only factors I considered. I intentionally took a different approach to this prediction.
This prediction is very hedgehoggy, but I think that is the right tool for the job here. I feel comfortable doing that here but not in China because I believe macro trends work much better as predictors of things like human psychology and things like democratic votes. In contrast, I don’t think I can form a good reference class to put China (2012) in that will allow me to evaluate the probability it collapses in, so I chose to instead use speciifc data. Also, I’ve examined specific facts about China, but I don’t feel confident in my ability to do that when it comes to the elections, because of media bias and cultural biases.
It’s far too late to get in on IEM or InTrade action—with like 24 days to go, it’d take almost all of that time to deposit funds via check or get ID cleared.
That said, I’d be happy to wager with chaosmosis that Romney will lose and Obama will win- say his $30 against my $20?
I’m confident, but not meta-level confident, because I haven’t been doing this for a while and I’m using new techniques and the experts are against me. I also have low risk tolerance for cash losses.
Additionally, you’re probably putting the terms of the bargain like that because I said 65% chance, but I expect that you’ve got an even higher chance in your mind that Obama would win. Obama winning is conventional wisdom, I would only accept a bet that rewarded me for being an outlier.
but I expect that you’ve got an even higher chance in your mind that Obama would win. Obama winning is conventional wisdom, I would only accept a bet that rewarded me for being an outlier.
Fine—you drive a hard bargain! $20:$20 or $30:$30?
Not gonna do it. Maybe that means I should revise my estimates, or that I have irrational feelings about bets in general. I’ll figure that out later.
I notice that I would be willing to bet on China, that’s because: 1. I’ve looked through the data more and taken a foxy approach to it. 2. I think that China’s fate is less subject to random events 3. I’m not really against conventional wisdom with China. 4. I feel more metalevel confident about my ability to predict world affairs, I’m not sure why though.
I think the most likely reason that I’m not wanting to bet is that I don’t know whether or not I’m safe in doubting conventional wisdom and current polls and most experts in this specific field, and that I actually suspect that I’m not. For now I’ll revise my estimates, I’ll still incorporate my move towards Romney from the mainstream but I’ll start at the mainstream, which would be about 80% Obama, and I’ll move towards Romney, to 60% for Obama.
Also, I might have been in backlash mode or trying to be TOO pessimistic when I made the initial prediction that Obama would lose. Either I’ve gotten deeper into the liberal echo chamber from redditing and whatnot and my perceptions are getting distorted, or else I was being too pessimistic before (because I tried to force factors like height into my model, and I assumed that substance was basically irrelevant to political success, but now I’m not so sure.) I think I wanted to see myself as pessimistic so I wrote off the mainstream opinion and maybe I overdid it.
Additionally, I’m not wanting to go through the hassle of getting a paypal or whatever might happen. I would like the information on this (whatever the standard betting venue or monetary exchange thingy on LessWrong would be, if there is one, even though I’m not going to be betting here). I think I might be scared that I’ll lose the bet and then decide to not pay you, also, and that’s something else that’s making me reluctant to bet. Now that I think about it, I should also get an Intrade account in advance now.
There are many complicating factors. Demands for money helped me identify some.
FWIW, my own Obama probability is more like 65-70%.
Additionally, I’m not wanting to go through the hassle of getting a paypal or whatever might happen. I would like the information on this (whatever the standard betting venue or monetary exchange thingy on LessWrong would be, if there is one, even though I’m not going to be betting here). I think I might be scared that I’ll lose the bet and then decide to not pay you, also, and that’s something else that’s making me reluctant to bet.
Bets are typically paid as Paypal, Bitcoin, or donations to specified charities.
Now that I think about it, I should also get an Intrade account in advance now.
I personally don’t use Intrade because the new fees make it very expensive for low-stakes long-term bets like most bets on LW (assuming the market even exists).
Ooh. As long as I’m making predictions, I believe Romney will defy the polls and win. 65% chance I’m right.
The economy is doing poorly.
Obama is an incumbent.
Romney is taller.
I think polls (and 538) are overestimating what Democratic participation will be like.
These are the only factors I considered. I intentionally took a different approach to this prediction.
This prediction is very hedgehoggy, but I think that is the right tool for the job here. I feel comfortable doing that here but not in China because I believe macro trends work much better as predictors of things like human psychology and things like democratic votes. In contrast, I don’t think I can form a good reference class to put China (2012) in that will allow me to evaluate the probability it collapses in, so I chose to instead use speciifc data. Also, I’ve examined specific facts about China, but I don’t feel confident in my ability to do that when it comes to the elections, because of media bias and cultural biases.
How confident are you? IEM and InTrade would like to know.
It’s far too late to get in on IEM or InTrade action—with like 24 days to go, it’d take almost all of that time to deposit funds via check or get ID cleared.
That said, I’d be happy to wager with chaosmosis that Romney will lose and Obama will win- say his $30 against my $20?
Nope, but thanks.
I’m confident, but not meta-level confident, because I haven’t been doing this for a while and I’m using new techniques and the experts are against me. I also have low risk tolerance for cash losses.
Additionally, you’re probably putting the terms of the bargain like that because I said 65% chance, but I expect that you’ve got an even higher chance in your mind that Obama would win. Obama winning is conventional wisdom, I would only accept a bet that rewarded me for being an outlier.
Fine—you drive a hard bargain! $20:$20 or $30:$30?
Not gonna do it. Maybe that means I should revise my estimates, or that I have irrational feelings about bets in general. I’ll figure that out later.
I notice that I would be willing to bet on China, that’s because: 1. I’ve looked through the data more and taken a foxy approach to it. 2. I think that China’s fate is less subject to random events 3. I’m not really against conventional wisdom with China. 4. I feel more metalevel confident about my ability to predict world affairs, I’m not sure why though.
I think the most likely reason that I’m not wanting to bet is that I don’t know whether or not I’m safe in doubting conventional wisdom and current polls and most experts in this specific field, and that I actually suspect that I’m not. For now I’ll revise my estimates, I’ll still incorporate my move towards Romney from the mainstream but I’ll start at the mainstream, which would be about 80% Obama, and I’ll move towards Romney, to 60% for Obama.
Also, I might have been in backlash mode or trying to be TOO pessimistic when I made the initial prediction that Obama would lose. Either I’ve gotten deeper into the liberal echo chamber from redditing and whatnot and my perceptions are getting distorted, or else I was being too pessimistic before (because I tried to force factors like height into my model, and I assumed that substance was basically irrelevant to political success, but now I’m not so sure.) I think I wanted to see myself as pessimistic so I wrote off the mainstream opinion and maybe I overdid it.
Additionally, I’m not wanting to go through the hassle of getting a paypal or whatever might happen. I would like the information on this (whatever the standard betting venue or monetary exchange thingy on LessWrong would be, if there is one, even though I’m not going to be betting here). I think I might be scared that I’ll lose the bet and then decide to not pay you, also, and that’s something else that’s making me reluctant to bet. Now that I think about it, I should also get an Intrade account in advance now.
There are many complicating factors. Demands for money helped me identify some.
FWIW, my own Obama probability is more like 65-70%.
Bets are typically paid as Paypal, Bitcoin, or donations to specified charities.
I personally don’t use Intrade because the new fees make it very expensive for low-stakes long-term bets like most bets on LW (assuming the market even exists).
I was tired when I wrote this. I’m going to bed now, and I’m not going to fix the grammar or the colloquialisms or the general disorganization.