I’ve done a moderate amount of training. I think that the credence game is fun enough to put an hour or two into, but I think the claim that it’s worth putting serious effort into rests on the claim that it transfers (or that probabilistic judgments are common enough in your professional field that it makes sense to train those sorts of judgments).
I tried the game for a while… many of the questions are pretty hard IMO (especially the “which of these top-10 ranked things was ranked higher” ones), which makes it a bit difficult to learn to differentiate easy & hard questions.
I think that’s necessary? You want to have questions you can answer at every credence band between 99% and 50%, and that implies questions you’re only 60% sure of the answer of.
I’ve done a moderate amount of training. I think that the credence game is fun enough to put an hour or two into, but I think the claim that it’s worth putting serious effort into rests on the claim that it transfers (or that probabilistic judgments are common enough in your professional field that it makes sense to train those sorts of judgments).
CFAR calibration games
I tried the game for a while… many of the questions are pretty hard IMO (especially the “which of these top-10 ranked things was ranked higher” ones), which makes it a bit difficult to learn to differentiate easy & hard questions.
Other calibration quizzes
I think that’s necessary? You want to have questions you can answer at every credence band between 99% and 50%, and that implies questions you’re only 60% sure of the answer of.