You originally wrote “We could further condition on something like “observing that computers were invented [80] years ago” … This conditioning means we don’t have to consider that longer-lived planets will have greater populations.”
I interpreted this comment as you saying “We could restrict our SSA reference class to only include observers for whom computers were invented 80 years ago”. (Is that right?)
And then I was trying to respond to that by saying “Well if we can do that, why can’t we equally well restrict our SSA reference class to only include observers for whom the universe is 13.8 billion years old? And then “humanity is early” stops being true.”
I interpreted this comment as you saying “We could restrict our SSA reference class to only include observers for whom computers were invented 80 years ago”. (Is that right?)
What I wanted to say was: keep the reference class the same, but restrict the types of observers we are we saying we are contained in(the numerator in the SSA ratio) to be only those who (amongst other things) observe the invention of the computer 80 years ago.
And then I was trying to respond to that by saying “Well if we can do that, why can’t we equally well restrict our SSA reference class to only include observers for whom the universe is 13.8 billion years old? And then “humanity is early” stops being true.”
Yep, one can do this. We might still be atypical if we think longer-lived planets are habitable (since life has more time to appear there) but could also restrict the reference class further. Eventually we end up at minimal reference class SSA
Oh, I think I phrased my last comment poorly.
You originally wrote “We could further condition on something like “observing that computers were invented [80] years ago” … This conditioning means we don’t have to consider that longer-lived planets will have greater populations.”
I interpreted this comment as you saying “We could restrict our SSA reference class to only include observers for whom computers were invented 80 years ago”. (Is that right?)
And then I was trying to respond to that by saying “Well if we can do that, why can’t we equally well restrict our SSA reference class to only include observers for whom the universe is 13.8 billion years old? And then “humanity is early” stops being true.”
Ah, I don’t think I was very clear either.
What I wanted to say was: keep the reference class the same, but restrict the types of observers we are we saying we are contained in(the numerator in the SSA ratio) to be only those who (amongst other things) observe the invention of the computer 80 years ago.
Yep, one can do this. We might still be atypical if we think longer-lived planets are habitable (since life has more time to appear there) but could also restrict the reference class further. Eventually we end up at minimal reference class SSA