Today, small-scale coarse simulations are far cheaper than large-scale detailed simulations, and so we run far more of the first type than the second. I expect the same to hold for posthuman simulations of humans – most simulation resources will be allocated to simulations far smaller than an entire human history, and so most simulated humans would be found in such smaller simulations.
Furthermore I expect simulations to be quite unequal in who they simulate in great detail – pivotal “interesting” folks will be simulated in full detail far more often than ordinary folks. In fact, I’d guess they’d be simulated over a million times more often. Thus from the point of view of a very interesting person, the chances that that person is in a simulation should be more than a million times the chances from the point of view of an ordinary person.
However, if just two large-scale, full-detail simulations are run, and the rest are all famous people and NPCs, those of us in the epistemically privileged position of being fairly ordinary should still guess at 2⁄3 probability that we’re in a simulation.
The alternative option, if observer-moments in partial “interesting period/place/person simulations” overwhelmingly outnumber those in full simulations, is that I’m extremely likely to become famous, sooner or later; and this should outweigh my very low “inside view” probability of fame.
Should I start preparing for my moment of glory, or re-examine my reasoning?
I think I see a problem in Robin Hanson’s I’m a Sim, or You’re Not. He argues:
However, if just two large-scale, full-detail simulations are run, and the rest are all famous people and NPCs, those of us in the epistemically privileged position of being fairly ordinary should still guess at 2⁄3 probability that we’re in a simulation.
The alternative option, if observer-moments in partial “interesting period/place/person simulations” overwhelmingly outnumber those in full simulations, is that I’m extremely likely to become famous, sooner or later; and this should outweigh my very low “inside view” probability of fame.
Should I start preparing for my moment of glory, or re-examine my reasoning?