Okay, a lot of people seem to agree with this broad criticism of the “someone would have noticed?” heuristic (as suggested by the relatively high vote rating) despite relatively little defense of it and the highly upvoted rebuttals. So I’m going to spell out how Auntie Alicorn (AA) can answer Niece Wednesday (NW) without rejecting the heuristic wholesale, and without even introducing noticers outside the church—even AA! Here goes:
NW: Don’t be silly. If God didn’t exist, don’t you think somebody would have noticed? AA: Noticed what? NW: God not existing, silly! AA: No, I mean, what specifically is it that people would be noticing that would make them say, “Hey folks, look at that—guess God doesn’t exist after all!” and they all would agree? NW: Oh, well, that would be something like, if a big apparition appeared in the sky in the form of an old man and agreed with all our stuff but then fell out of the sky and died. AA: No, that would be noticing God existing and then dying. I mean, what would be noticed that would reveal God never having existed at all? NW: Ah, okay. Well then, that would be something like, if all our prayers didn’t get answered. AA: Wow! All of your prayers get answered! So can you pray for like, a lot of money for me and I’ll get rich? Show me how to pray! NW: Don’t be so difficult. You only get answered if you pray for stuff God thinks you should have! AA: How do you know in advance what God thinks you should have? NW: If the prayer gets answered like you asked, of course! AA: That’s not in advance. What would it look like for you to pray for something God thinks you should have, but not get it, just as if God had never existed? Can you describe what that kind of scenario would look like? NW: Hm, no, I can’t imagine something like that ever happening: if your prayer doesn’t get answered, God thinks you don’t need it right now; there’s no kind of scenario that would suggest, “Oh, that whole God thing is fake!” I mean, come on … AA: Okay, but you said before that someone would have noticed God not existing. Do you now see why there’s nothing to notice and so even if God didn’t exist, you can’t expect that “someone would have noticed?” [cycle as necessary]
(As usual, feel free to call on a friend to reply if you don’t want to do it personally.)
Noticing doesn’t necessarily mean they actually saw something. If there really was no reason to believe in God, someone would have figured that out. Auntie Acorn might have just made some fallacy Wednesday didn’t pick up on, after all.
Okay, a lot of people seem to agree with this broad criticism of the “someone would have noticed?” heuristic (as suggested by the relatively high vote rating) despite relatively little defense of it and the highly upvoted rebuttals. So I’m going to spell out how Auntie Alicorn (AA) can answer Niece Wednesday (NW) without rejecting the heuristic wholesale, and without even introducing noticers outside the church—even AA! Here goes:
NW: Don’t be silly. If God didn’t exist, don’t you think somebody would have noticed?
AA: Noticed what?
NW: God not existing, silly!
AA: No, I mean, what specifically is it that people would be noticing that would make them say, “Hey folks, look at that—guess God doesn’t exist after all!” and they all would agree?
NW: Oh, well, that would be something like, if a big apparition appeared in the sky in the form of an old man and agreed with all our stuff but then fell out of the sky and died.
AA: No, that would be noticing God existing and then dying. I mean, what would be noticed that would reveal God never having existed at all?
NW: Ah, okay. Well then, that would be something like, if all our prayers didn’t get answered.
AA: Wow! All of your prayers get answered! So can you pray for like, a lot of money for me and I’ll get rich? Show me how to pray!
NW: Don’t be so difficult. You only get answered if you pray for stuff God thinks you should have!
AA: How do you know in advance what God thinks you should have?
NW: If the prayer gets answered like you asked, of course!
AA: That’s not in advance. What would it look like for you to pray for something God thinks you should have, but not get it, just as if God had never existed? Can you describe what that kind of scenario would look like?
NW: Hm, no, I can’t imagine something like that ever happening: if your prayer doesn’t get answered, God thinks you don’t need it right now; there’s no kind of scenario that would suggest, “Oh, that whole God thing is fake!” I mean, come on …
AA: Okay, but you said before that someone would have noticed God not existing. Do you now see why there’s nothing to notice and so even if God didn’t exist, you can’t expect that “someone would have noticed?”
[cycle as necessary]
(As usual, feel free to call on a friend to reply if you don’t want to do it personally.)
Noticing doesn’t necessarily mean they actually saw something. If there really was no reason to believe in God, someone would have figured that out. Auntie Acorn might have just made some fallacy Wednesday didn’t pick up on, after all.
Which is a large part of why I didn’t predicate AA’s argument thereon.