This just has to do with a question that was a poorly question to begin with. When one makes decisions, should they optimize for ‘expected value’ or ‘actual value’. The answer is that the ‘actual value’ is obviously unknowable, so it’s a moot question. That said, I’ve discussed this with people who weren’t sure, so wanted to make this clear.
I call these “future decisions” to contrast them with ‘past decisions’ which can’t really be made but judged, as they have already occurred.
Isn’t expected value essentially ‘actual value, to the extent that it is knowable in my present epistemic state’? Expected value reduces to ‘actual value’ when the latter is fully knowable.
EDIT: Oh, you said this in the post. This is why I should read a post before commenting on it.
Not sure what you mean here. Future is never actual, only expected (or, more often, unexpected).
This just has to do with a question that was a poorly question to begin with. When one makes decisions, should they optimize for ‘expected value’ or ‘actual value’. The answer is that the ‘actual value’ is obviously unknowable, so it’s a moot question. That said, I’ve discussed this with people who weren’t sure, so wanted to make this clear.
I call these “future decisions” to contrast them with ‘past decisions’ which can’t really be made but judged, as they have already occurred.
Isn’t expected value essentially ‘actual value, to the extent that it is knowable in my present epistemic state’? Expected value reduces to ‘actual value’ when the latter is fully knowable.
EDIT: Oh, you said this in the post. This is why I should read a post before commenting on it.