Not necessarily. Using climate as an example (asteroids might be another, or volcanic activity, or any number of other mass-extinction causing events), given that extreme climate changes are required for intelligence, extreme climate changes are necessarily required in the past. However, general climate stability may be required for life to survive at all. It may be the case that intelligent life requires a degree of climate instability that can’t support life over long timeframes in order to evolve in short timeframes, in which case intelligent life should only appear on planets with inherently stable climates that have had a series of improbable one-off events resulting in an apparently unstable climate. (Or on planets with inherently unstable climates that have had a series of improbable one-off events resulting in an apparently stable climate.)
That is, geologic history might have an anthropomorphic bias—it had to happen a certain way in order for us to evolve, regardless of the actual probability of it happening that way. The planet could be prone to disasters exactly as they have happened, a “moderate” inherent stability level for the planet—or the disasters could have been improbable one-off events on an inherently stable planet—or the current stable situation could be an improbable one-off event on an inherently unstable planet.
I think, overall, we can’t really take history for granted.
This line or reasoning is known as anthropic shadow. The worst case here is that a catastrophe is long overdue, and our world is in meta-stable condition about it. Small our actions could provoke it. (Like methane-hydrates release could result in catastrophic global warming)
Not necessarily. Using climate as an example (asteroids might be another, or volcanic activity, or any number of other mass-extinction causing events), given that extreme climate changes are required for intelligence, extreme climate changes are necessarily required in the past. However, general climate stability may be required for life to survive at all. It may be the case that intelligent life requires a degree of climate instability that can’t support life over long timeframes in order to evolve in short timeframes, in which case intelligent life should only appear on planets with inherently stable climates that have had a series of improbable one-off events resulting in an apparently unstable climate. (Or on planets with inherently unstable climates that have had a series of improbable one-off events resulting in an apparently stable climate.)
That is, geologic history might have an anthropomorphic bias—it had to happen a certain way in order for us to evolve, regardless of the actual probability of it happening that way. The planet could be prone to disasters exactly as they have happened, a “moderate” inherent stability level for the planet—or the disasters could have been improbable one-off events on an inherently stable planet—or the current stable situation could be an improbable one-off event on an inherently unstable planet.
I think, overall, we can’t really take history for granted.
This line or reasoning is known as anthropic shadow. The worst case here is that a catastrophe is long overdue, and our world is in meta-stable condition about it. Small our actions could provoke it. (Like methane-hydrates release could result in catastrophic global warming)