I agree that “it’s arrogant for you to write a book” is probably not helpful, though “you can’t finish a project this long” may or may not be helpful depending on whether you generate that thanks to reference class forecasting (even insulting, biased reference class forecasting) or thanks to negative self-image issues.
In general, I do not advocate this (or any other) technique if it causes damage to your self-concept, intrusive thoughts, etc.
The problem with “You can’t finish a project this long” is that is doesn’t come with a reason like “You haven’t set aside enough time” or “Planning fallacy!” or “You’ll have to trade off against more worthwhile use of your time” which are all useful to address. I’m describing a kind of thought that doesn’t feel like troubleshooting but more like anti-self efficacy, where the problem isn’t the plan, it’s that the plan has you in it.
I like pre-mortems, outside view, etc, so I’m not denigrating the technique, just flagging an error mode.
I agree that “it’s arrogant for you to write a book” is probably not helpful, though “you can’t finish a project this long” may or may not be helpful depending on whether you generate that thanks to reference class forecasting (even insulting, biased reference class forecasting) or thanks to negative self-image issues.
In general, I do not advocate this (or any other) technique if it causes damage to your self-concept, intrusive thoughts, etc.
The problem with “You can’t finish a project this long” is that is doesn’t come with a reason like “You haven’t set aside enough time” or “Planning fallacy!” or “You’ll have to trade off against more worthwhile use of your time” which are all useful to address. I’m describing a kind of thought that doesn’t feel like troubleshooting but more like anti-self efficacy, where the problem isn’t the plan, it’s that the plan has you in it.
I like pre-mortems, outside view, etc, so I’m not denigrating the technique, just flagging an error mode.