These both I think had a pretty large effect on a bunch of governance and coordination work.
Another post that had a pretty major impact was Katja’s post “Let’s Think about Slowing Down AI”, which had a relatively large effect on me and many others.
I also think the discontinuity studies have been quite helpful and I’ve frequently references them when talking about takeoff dynamics.
Re. governance efforts, you might be forgetting the quite impactful 2016 and 2022 AI impacts survey: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai
These both I think had a pretty large effect on a bunch of governance and coordination work.
Another post that had a pretty major impact was Katja’s post “Let’s Think about Slowing Down AI”, which had a relatively large effect on me and many others.
I also think the discontinuity studies have been quite helpful and I’ve frequently references them when talking about takeoff dynamics.