I don’t understand. Importantly, these are optimistically biased, and you can’t assume my true credences are this high. I assign much less than 90% probability to C. But still, they’re perfectly consistent. M doesn’t say anything about succeeding—only being allowed. M is basically saying: listing the places he’d be willing to live, do they all pass laws which would make building dangerously advanced AI illegal? The only logical connection between C and M is that M (almost definitely) implies C.
I don’t understand. Importantly, these are optimistically biased, and you can’t assume my true credences are this high. I assign much less than 90% probability to C. But still, they’re perfectly consistent. M doesn’t say anything about succeeding—only being allowed. M is basically saying: listing the places he’d be willing to live, do they all pass laws which would make building dangerously advanced AI illegal? The only logical connection between C and M is that M (almost definitely) implies C.