If I count all observer-moments that get told their labels, the fraction of observer-moments that get told A is 1⁄3. If each observer has a fixed amount of “reality fluid” that gets split in equal parts when copies are made and disappears when copies die, the total fraction of “reality fluid” in observer-moments that get told A is also 1⁄3, but by a different calculation. Maybe both these methods of counting are wrong, but the answer 1 is still far from certain.
Averaging observed frequencies sounds weird...
If I count all observer-moments that get told their labels, the fraction of observer-moments that get told A is 1⁄3. If each observer has a fixed amount of “reality fluid” that gets split in equal parts when copies are made and disappears when copies die, the total fraction of “reality fluid” in observer-moments that get told A is also 1⁄3, but by a different calculation. Maybe both these methods of counting are wrong, but the answer 1 is still far from certain.