I don’t think this is an accurate summary of historical discourse. I think there is broad consensus that boxing is very far from something that can contain AI for long given continuous progress on capabilities, but I don’t think there is consensus on whether it’s a good idea to do anyways in the meantime, in the hope of buying a few months or maybe even years if you do it well, and takeoff dynamics are less sharp. I personally think it seems pretty reasonably to prevent AIs from accessing the internet, as is argued for in the recent discussion around Web-GPT.
I don’t think this is an accurate summary of historical discourse. I think there is broad consensus that boxing is very far from something that can contain AI for long given continuous progress on capabilities, but I don’t think there is consensus on whether it’s a good idea to do anyways in the meantime, in the hope of buying a few months or maybe even years if you do it well, and takeoff dynamics are less sharp. I personally think it seems pretty reasonably to prevent AIs from accessing the internet, as is argued for in the recent discussion around Web-GPT.