I think Eliezer had a too low prior for academic competence in physics, which rubbed off on everyone else because he can be pretty damn convincing. His Bayesian Conspiracy stories show a small dedicated group working much faster than academia. The quantum physics sequence made a similar point. He has since changed his mind a little. IMO it’s not enough, and most of LW still doesn’t appreciate how competent you have to be to make good new science.
I think Eliezer had a too low prior for academic competence in physics, which rubbed off on everyone else because he can be pretty damn convincing. His Bayesian Conspiracy stories show a small dedicated group working much faster than academia. The quantum physics sequence made a similar point. He has since changed his mind a little. IMO it’s not enough, and most of LW still doesn’t appreciate how competent you have to be to make good new science.