The first option is most salient, by virtue of being first.
Level 0 players will tend to choose option 1. Level 1 players will realize that this is what level 0 players will do, so they will tend to choose option 2 (“the first one”). Level 2 players will realize that this is what level 1 players will do, so they will tend to choose option 4 (“the second one”). Level 3 players will realize that this is what level 2 players will do, so they will tend to choose option 5 (“the fourth one”). Apparently there are lots of level 1 & 2 players, but very few level 3 players.
But this analysis does not explain why so many people chose option 3 (“the last one”) - I doubt that they are level 4 players. Perhaps it’s that the last answer is the second-most-salient, by virtue of being last, making them level 1 players with a twist.
Just because a game is isomorphic to a symmetric problem doesn’t mean that it is a symmetric problem. “Scissors cut Paper wraps Rock smashes Scissors” has an equivalent formalism to “Policeman arrests Murderer kills Mayor bosses Policeman” but I’d bet with the latter (played as a single-round game) you’d see some very different game play in practice.
So what CronoDAS needs isn’t a game theorist, it’s a psychologist.
They all form one big loop, so no option really has any distinguishing feature over the others.
The first option is most salient, by virtue of being first.
Level 0 players will tend to choose option 1. Level 1 players will realize that this is what level 0 players will do, so they will tend to choose option 2 (“the first one”). Level 2 players will realize that this is what level 1 players will do, so they will tend to choose option 4 (“the second one”). Level 3 players will realize that this is what level 2 players will do, so they will tend to choose option 5 (“the fourth one”). Apparently there are lots of level 1 & 2 players, but very few level 3 players.
But this analysis does not explain why so many people chose option 3 (“the last one”) - I doubt that they are level 4 players. Perhaps it’s that the last answer is the second-most-salient, by virtue of being last, making them level 1 players with a twist.
When trying to choose randomly, people tend to avoid options with salient features. It is not so easy to sort players into levels accurately.
You and DanielLC are right, however:
Just because a game is isomorphic to a symmetric problem doesn’t mean that it is a symmetric problem. “Scissors cut Paper wraps Rock smashes Scissors” has an equivalent formalism to “Policeman arrests Murderer kills Mayor bosses Policeman” but I’d bet with the latter (played as a single-round game) you’d see some very different game play in practice.
So what CronoDAS needs isn’t a game theorist, it’s a psychologist.
And yet, D is over twice as popular as E. Contradiction!
People’s internal random number generators are not perfect.