Manufacturing is clearly out. Services that involve interacting with other humans (health care, teaching) are in.
Personally, I think we’ve plucked a lot of low hanging fruit. I predict the maturation of some technologies that will make a few fields move towards obsolescence. I expect at major ( >%50) decline in employment for long haul truckers and tax preparers under that maturation. Retail sales will decline in favor of ship-to-home, and obviously some jobs are clearly disappearing altogether ( running a newspaper printing press,camera loader on a movie set, working at a video rental store, telephone line repairman).
It’s easier to predict what will decline rather than what will thrive. Engineering is generally a safe bet though.
How does retail falling in favor of ship to home lower employment for long-haul truckers? You still have to get the stuff from the ports to the distribution centers. The only thing that cuts down employment for long haul truckers is automated trucks, and that is still a long long way away.
I do mean automated trucking. I think that development is less than 30 years away. Self-driving cars are a functioning technology now, the main hurdles (not insignificant ones) being social and legal.
Like most human-replacing technology, where the industry still exists, but is now automated ( modern car factories compared to buggy whip manufacturers), I don’t expect trucking to be 100% automated, but the human factor will be reduced significantly the next 30 years.
Vehicles will still need humans to gas, service, deal with theft and breakdowns, etc. It will likely start with truckers being able to sleep during trips, still one trucker per vehicle which decreases the down time of cargo by 30%. Then there will likely be one trucker per several vehicles travelling in a convoy. Potentially there could be “truckers” based in areas that handle vehicles as they pass through, rather than travelling with them.
Of course, as the costs of trucking goes down, the attractiveness goes up, so while it may take 1⁄4 of the manpower to handle the same cargo, the amount of cargo will increase.
I’m estimating a 50% decrease in trucking employment in the next 30 years, even as the amount of cargo doubles.
The US government has listed some trends here: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_203.htm
Manufacturing is clearly out. Services that involve interacting with other humans (health care, teaching) are in.
Personally, I think we’ve plucked a lot of low hanging fruit. I predict the maturation of some technologies that will make a few fields move towards obsolescence. I expect at major ( >%50) decline in employment for long haul truckers and tax preparers under that maturation. Retail sales will decline in favor of ship-to-home, and obviously some jobs are clearly disappearing altogether ( running a newspaper printing press,camera loader on a movie set, working at a video rental store, telephone line repairman).
It’s easier to predict what will decline rather than what will thrive. Engineering is generally a safe bet though.
How does retail falling in favor of ship to home lower employment for long-haul truckers? You still have to get the stuff from the ports to the distribution centers. The only thing that cuts down employment for long haul truckers is automated trucks, and that is still a long long way away.
Sorry, I should have been clearer.
I do mean automated trucking. I think that development is less than 30 years away. Self-driving cars are a functioning technology now, the main hurdles (not insignificant ones) being social and legal.
Like most human-replacing technology, where the industry still exists, but is now automated ( modern car factories compared to buggy whip manufacturers), I don’t expect trucking to be 100% automated, but the human factor will be reduced significantly the next 30 years.
Vehicles will still need humans to gas, service, deal with theft and breakdowns, etc. It will likely start with truckers being able to sleep during trips, still one trucker per vehicle which decreases the down time of cargo by 30%. Then there will likely be one trucker per several vehicles travelling in a convoy. Potentially there could be “truckers” based in areas that handle vehicles as they pass through, rather than travelling with them.
Of course, as the costs of trucking goes down, the attractiveness goes up, so while it may take 1⁄4 of the manpower to handle the same cargo, the amount of cargo will increase.
I’m estimating a 50% decrease in trucking employment in the next 30 years, even as the amount of cargo doubles.