I was going to comment this as well. I think it probably is the case that waste-efficiency and safety of nuclear reactors is positively correlated in the real world for that exact reason. Of course, reasoning to this point by, “Reactor A produces less waste than Reactor B. Therefore, Reactor A is better than Reactor B. Therefore, Reactor A is less likely to melt down than Reactor B,” is invalid, so the main point of EY’s post still stands. The correct reasoning is more like, “Technology improves and reactor design is refined over time. This occurs fast enough that reactors built later are likely to be better than earlier ones on all fronts. If Reactor A is more waste-efficient than Reactor B, it was probably built later and is therefore also likely to be safer and more cost-effective.” Unlike the naive, “A is better than B” model, this one no longer predicts that A will be safer than B if I get the additional piece of information that A and B were built in the same year. Then I predict the opposite based on trade-offs that probably had to occur.
I was going to comment this as well. I think it probably is the case that waste-efficiency and safety of nuclear reactors is positively correlated in the real world for that exact reason. Of course, reasoning to this point by, “Reactor A produces less waste than Reactor B. Therefore, Reactor A is better than Reactor B. Therefore, Reactor A is less likely to melt down than Reactor B,” is invalid, so the main point of EY’s post still stands. The correct reasoning is more like, “Technology improves and reactor design is refined over time. This occurs fast enough that reactors built later are likely to be better than earlier ones on all fronts. If Reactor A is more waste-efficient than Reactor B, it was probably built later and is therefore also likely to be safer and more cost-effective.” Unlike the naive, “A is better than B” model, this one no longer predicts that A will be safer than B if I get the additional piece of information that A and B were built in the same year. Then I predict the opposite based on trade-offs that probably had to occur.