Another problem with policies like this hypothetical nuclear reactor is that people don’t have access to facts about the future or hypothetical futures, so we’re left with estimates. People don’t acknowledge that their “facts” are actually estimates, and don’t share how they’re estimating things. If we did this, politics would be better. Just give your methods and assumptions, as well as the estimates that are determined by the methods and assumptions, of costs and benefits, and then people can pick the choice(s) with the best estimated benefits—costs.
The other thing about political arguments is that people don’t start with the foundation to the above, which is values. People will often talk about “lives saved”, which is ridiculous, because you can’t save lives, only postpone deaths. People who don’t agree on values aren’t ready to look at estimated costs and benefits. If I value 3 years of postponed-death at $100k, and someone else values it at $10, then we’re almost certain to disagree about which policies are best. Values are the prices at which you trade things you like/want/value.
Another problem with policies like this hypothetical nuclear reactor is that people don’t have access to facts about the future or hypothetical futures, so we’re left with estimates. People don’t acknowledge that their “facts” are actually estimates, and don’t share how they’re estimating things. If we did this, politics would be better. Just give your methods and assumptions, as well as the estimates that are determined by the methods and assumptions, of costs and benefits, and then people can pick the choice(s) with the best estimated benefits—costs.
The other thing about political arguments is that people don’t start with the foundation to the above, which is values. People will often talk about “lives saved”, which is ridiculous, because you can’t save lives, only postpone deaths. People who don’t agree on values aren’t ready to look at estimated costs and benefits. If I value 3 years of postponed-death at $100k, and someone else values it at $10, then we’re almost certain to disagree about which policies are best. Values are the prices at which you trade things you like/want/value.