Right, fair enough, then it’s a quantitative question on which our intuitions differ, and the answer depends both on a lot of specific facts about the brain, and on what sort of progress Moore’s Law ends up making over the next few decades. Let’s give Blue Brain another decade or two and see what things look like then.
Personally I have great hopes for Blue Brain. If it figures out how a single cortex unit works ( which they seem to be on the way to). If they can then figure out how to convert that into a chip and put oodles of those clips in the right environment of inputs and interactions with other parts of the brain (thalamus and basal ganglia especially) and then.....
A lot of work but it has a good chance as long as it avoids the step-by-step algorithm trap.
Right, fair enough, then it’s a quantitative question on which our intuitions differ, and the answer depends both on a lot of specific facts about the brain, and on what sort of progress Moore’s Law ends up making over the next few decades. Let’s give Blue Brain another decade or two and see what things look like then.
Personally I have great hopes for Blue Brain. If it figures out how a single cortex unit works ( which they seem to be on the way to). If they can then figure out how to convert that into a chip and put oodles of those clips in the right environment of inputs and interactions with other parts of the brain (thalamus and basal ganglia especially) and then.....
A lot of work but it has a good chance as long as it avoids the step-by-step algorithm trap.