you should be able to make testable predictions with them
Certainly. But you might not be able to make testable predictions for which others will readily agree with your criteria for judgement. In the exchange, Geoff gives some “evidence”, and in other places he gives additional “evidence”. It’s not really convincing to me, but it at least has the type signature of evidence. Eliezer responds:
Which sounds a lot like standard cognitive dissonance theory
This is eliding that Geoff probably has significant skill in identifying more detail of how beliefs and goals interact, beyond just what someone would know if they heard about cognitive dissonance theory. Like basically I’m saying that if Eliezer sat with Geoff for a few hours through a few sessions of Geoff doing his thing with some third person, Eliezer would see Geoff behave in a way that suggests falsifiable understanding that Eliezer doesn’t have. (Again, not saying he should have done that or anything.)
Certainly. But you might not be able to make testable predictions for which others will readily agree with your criteria for judgement. In the exchange, Geoff gives some “evidence”, and in other places he gives additional “evidence”. It’s not really convincing to me, but it at least has the type signature of evidence. Eliezer responds:
This is eliding that Geoff probably has significant skill in identifying more detail of how beliefs and goals interact, beyond just what someone would know if they heard about cognitive dissonance theory. Like basically I’m saying that if Eliezer sat with Geoff for a few hours through a few sessions of Geoff doing his thing with some third person, Eliezer would see Geoff behave in a way that suggests falsifiable understanding that Eliezer doesn’t have. (Again, not saying he should have done that or anything.)