you’re saying that unless I am willing to tie significant amounts of money up for the sake of winning tiny amounts of money, I lack the confidence I claim.
No, not at all. Not being willing to tie up the money is a perfectly sensible reason to refuse the bet. Opportunity cost isn’t remotely connected to confidence levels; that I quite confidently expect a Treasury bond to pay me the promised interest doesn’t mean I’d rather spend the money on something else that I value more.
And you certainly don’t owe me an explanation of any kind as to why you refuse a bet. You merely owe yourself a good one instead of a bad one.
Seems like an awful lot of work for a small show,
Then it would seem improbable that I’m putting the work in for the small show you identified, no? Not impossible, of course, but maybe you need a better theory of what I was trying to do.
No, not at all. Not being willing to tie up the money is a perfectly sensible reason to refuse the bet. Opportunity cost isn’t remotely connected to confidence levels; that I quite confidently expect a Treasury bond to pay me the promised interest doesn’t mean I’d rather spend the money on something else that I value more.
And you certainly don’t owe me an explanation of any kind as to why you refuse a bet. You merely owe yourself a good one instead of a bad one.
Then it would seem improbable that I’m putting the work in for the small show you identified, no? Not impossible, of course, but maybe you need a better theory of what I was trying to do.