People protect babies and it would be reasonable to expect that people would work especially hard to protect babies that are prophesied to save the world from an evil villain. It turns out that his enemies were idiots and suffered a single point of failure, but even if he thought he knew that the target would be under protected the smart thing to do is not to depend on his quisling and go in alone.
And yes, the sacrifice story comes from canon, not MoR. Still, with no other hints, that gives it a pretty high prior probability.
How high is this canon bonus to probability of yours? Would you say that Aberforth was probably a zoophile just because he was in canon? Or that Ron and Hermione will probably get together because they did in canon? Or that Snape will kill Dumbldedore because he did in canon?
What was idiotic about the way Harry was protected? They were betrayed to a superior force by someone highly placed, and there’s no good defense against that. And Voldemort was knowingly superior to every possible defender, so why would he worry about it?
And re prior probabilities, it’s obviously dependant on the issue in question. On something where MoR is silent, canon carries a lot of weight. On something where MoR spends time adjusting expectations, canon carries very little weight. So it’s quite likely that Aberforth loved goats(though even more likely that MoR will stay silent on the topic), but quite unlikely that Ron and Hermione will get together(because the story is explicitly listed as Harry/Hermione, and has been proceeding accordingly). And Snape killing Dumbledore...actually that one’s not implausible, because both characters seem quite similar to their canon versions. If they were put in the same position, they’d likely do the same thing. I don’t think the story will run long enough to get there, but if it does somehow, I can see it. I’d certainly put the probability higher than McGonagall or Flitwick doing him in.
What was idiotic about the way Harry was protected?
Did you miss the part about a singlepointoffailure?
Fate of the whole fucking world and the critical security decisions and on site protective services are trusted to a crew of twenty somethings who were really close in school. Idiots.
And Voldemort was knowingly superior to every possible defender, so why would he worry about it?
The only reason to work alone is if working with others means watching your back more. We have no evidence that Vodlemort executed his other raids singlehandely, so we should believe that he did it the smart way with backup. So why the sudden switch from terrorist to cheap slasher monster?
On something where MoR is silent, canon carries a lot of weight. On something where MoR spends time adjusting expectations, canon carries very little weight.
MoR is not silent on the question of sacrifice, it is coveredundertheprimarythemesofthestory. Throwing your life away futilely not smart and should not be rewarded in a story with rationalist aspirations. There’s no exposition on the subject of mother’s love sacrifice charms, so if this is what happened it will be unforeshadowed. EY has said that is a bad thing to do so we should guess that he probably doesn’t intend to do that.
Find me a protection scheme that applies to the situation at hand with a second point of failure, and I’ll accept your criticism of the plan they had. Highly-placed traitors are really, really hard to defend against.
Similarly, find me an example of Voldemort having backup on any of his attacks, and I’ll believe that him lacking it here is relevant.
Rationality is about winning. Lily Potter won that night, as much as she believably could have. I’d say she did okay by “throwing her life away”.
So you want to replace a single point of failure for defending a baby with a single point of failure for the entire Order? Remember what happens when the Secret-Keeper dies, after all.
And there’s a bit of a difference between hitting a single-family house and a large battle.
So you want to replace a single point of failure for defending a baby with a single point of failure for the entire Order?
How would Dumbledore be any easier to kill as a Secret-Keeper than otherwise? Wait, before that, how would Dumbledore’s death be any more crippling to the Order if he was a Secret-Keeper than otherwise? He dies, they’ve pretty much lost the war, baby Harry Potter or no baby Harry Potter.
Remember what happens when the Secret-Keeper dies, after all.
I am. Are you?
(Dumbledore’s death resulted in everyone read into the Secret of 12 Grimmauld Place becoming Secret-Keepers themselves; the Fidelius was still in place.)
Edit: The wiki claims- unfortunately without attribution- that Dumbledore offered to be the Potters’ Keeper, and was turned down.
Edit2:
Similarly, find me an example of Voldemort having backup on any of his attacks, and I’ll believe that him lacking it here is relevant.
The Ministry raid at the end of OotP.
And there’s a bit of a difference between hitting a single-family house and a large battle.
The wiki claims- unfortunately without attribution- that Dumbledore offered to be the Potters’ Keeper, and was turned down.
I definitely remember this from the third book. The adults are talking about the Potters’ deaths in the Three Broomsticks Inn and someone mentions that Dumbledore himself offered to become the secret keeper, but was turned down with insistences that Sirius Black would never betray them.
EDIT: Found it.
“So Black was the Potters’ Secret-Keeper?” whispered Madam Rosmerta. ”Naturally,” said Professor McGonagall. “James Potter told Dumbledore
that Black would die rather than tell where they were, that Black was
planning to go into hiding himself… and yet, Dumbledore remained
worried. I remember him offering to be the Potters’ Secret-Keeper
himself.”
Why would he need backup to kill a baby? We’ve seen him do more dangerous things(e.g., sitting in Hogwarts for a year scheming) without backup.
And yes, the sacrifice story comes from canon, not MoR. Still, with no other hints, that gives it a pretty high prior probability.
People protect babies and it would be reasonable to expect that people would work especially hard to protect babies that are prophesied to save the world from an evil villain. It turns out that his enemies were idiots and suffered a single point of failure, but even if he thought he knew that the target would be under protected the smart thing to do is not to depend on his quisling and go in alone.
How high is this canon bonus to probability of yours? Would you say that Aberforth was probably a zoophile just because he was in canon? Or that Ron and Hermione will probably get together because they did in canon? Or that Snape will kill Dumbldedore because he did in canon?
What was idiotic about the way Harry was protected? They were betrayed to a superior force by someone highly placed, and there’s no good defense against that. And Voldemort was knowingly superior to every possible defender, so why would he worry about it?
And re prior probabilities, it’s obviously dependant on the issue in question. On something where MoR is silent, canon carries a lot of weight. On something where MoR spends time adjusting expectations, canon carries very little weight. So it’s quite likely that Aberforth loved goats(though even more likely that MoR will stay silent on the topic), but quite unlikely that Ron and Hermione will get together(because the story is explicitly listed as Harry/Hermione, and has been proceeding accordingly). And Snape killing Dumbledore...actually that one’s not implausible, because both characters seem quite similar to their canon versions. If they were put in the same position, they’d likely do the same thing. I don’t think the story will run long enough to get there, but if it does somehow, I can see it. I’d certainly put the probability higher than McGonagall or Flitwick doing him in.
Did you miss the part about a single point of failure?
Fate of the whole fucking world and the critical security decisions and on site protective services are trusted to a crew of twenty somethings who were really close in school. Idiots.
The only reason to work alone is if working with others means watching your back more. We have no evidence that Vodlemort executed his other raids singlehandely, so we should believe that he did it the smart way with backup. So why the sudden switch from terrorist to cheap slasher monster?
MoR is not silent on the question of sacrifice, it is covered under the primary themes of the story. Throwing your life away futilely not smart and should not be rewarded in a story with rationalist aspirations. There’s no exposition on the subject of mother’s love sacrifice charms, so if this is what happened it will be unforeshadowed. EY has said that is a bad thing to do so we should guess that he probably doesn’t intend to do that.
Find me a protection scheme that applies to the situation at hand with a second point of failure, and I’ll accept your criticism of the plan they had. Highly-placed traitors are really, really hard to defend against.
Similarly, find me an example of Voldemort having backup on any of his attacks, and I’ll believe that him lacking it here is relevant.
Rationality is about winning. Lily Potter won that night, as much as she believably could have. I’d say she did okay by “throwing her life away”.
Have Dumbledore be the Secret-Keeper.
The Ministry raid at the end of OotP.
So you want to replace a single point of failure for defending a baby with a single point of failure for the entire Order? Remember what happens when the Secret-Keeper dies, after all.
And there’s a bit of a difference between hitting a single-family house and a large battle.
How would Dumbledore be any easier to kill as a Secret-Keeper than otherwise? Wait, before that, how would Dumbledore’s death be any more crippling to the Order if he was a Secret-Keeper than otherwise? He dies, they’ve pretty much lost the war, baby Harry Potter or no baby Harry Potter.
I am. Are you?
(Dumbledore’s death resulted in everyone read into the Secret of 12 Grimmauld Place becoming Secret-Keepers themselves; the Fidelius was still in place.)
Edit: The wiki claims- unfortunately without attribution- that Dumbledore offered to be the Potters’ Keeper, and was turned down.
Edit2:
Emphasis mine.
I definitely remember this from the third book. The adults are talking about the Potters’ deaths in the Three Broomsticks Inn and someone mentions that Dumbledore himself offered to become the secret keeper, but was turned down with insistences that Sirius Black would never betray them.
EDIT: Found it.