Here is what he said prior to making the statement I quoted (to give you some context):
Take historical analogies. I believe that historical analogies are always wrong. This a long discussion, but, to me, the most dangerous thing about Chamberlain’s capitulation to Hitler at Munich is not the fact that Munich happened and it led to further Nazi aggression and so on and so forth, but that the example of Munich has been used to support thousands upon thousands of bad policies and inappropriate decisions. LeMay called JFK’s recommendation for a “quarantine” (that is, a blockade) in the Cuban Missile Crisis “worse than Munich”. Would nuclear war have been a better alternative? But nuclear war was averted by Kennedy’s policies. And thirty years later the Soviet Union collapsed without the need for nuclear war. Was LeMay right? I don’t think so. But again, the example of Munich was invoked to justify the invasion of Iraq. Appeasing Saddam, appeasing Hitler. The use of the Munich analogy does not clarify, it obscures.
Munich is notorious in this respect. But this instance does not prove the rule.
Edit: In fact, it’s pretty clear that if there are lessons from history we shouldn’t assume we know them until after we see the pattern. And one event does not make a pattern. Appeasement has worked really well in lots of times and places.
“It must be recognized that the real truths of history are hard to discover. Happily, for the most part, they are rather matters of curiosity than of real importance.”
Or maybe just so hard that you should not expect that you have achieved it, even if your story about why something had to happen seems really compelling.
This sounds like a claim that rationality is hopeless.
Here is what he said prior to making the statement I quoted (to give you some context):
Take historical analogies. I believe that historical analogies are always wrong. This a long discussion, but, to me, the most dangerous thing about Chamberlain’s capitulation to Hitler at Munich is not the fact that Munich happened and it led to further Nazi aggression and so on and so forth, but that the example of Munich has been used to support thousands upon thousands of bad policies and inappropriate decisions. LeMay called JFK’s recommendation for a “quarantine” (that is, a blockade) in the Cuban Missile Crisis “worse than Munich”. Would nuclear war have been a better alternative? But nuclear war was averted by Kennedy’s policies. And thirty years later the Soviet Union collapsed without the need for nuclear war. Was LeMay right? I don’t think so. But again, the example of Munich was invoked to justify the invasion of Iraq. Appeasing Saddam, appeasing Hitler. The use of the Munich analogy does not clarify, it obscures.
Munich is notorious in this respect. But this instance does not prove the rule.
Edit: In fact, it’s pretty clear that if there are lessons from history we shouldn’t assume we know them until after we see the pattern. And one event does not make a pattern. Appeasement has worked really well in lots of times and places.
There’s a sample bias—People are likely to try appeasement when they are powerless, which makes appeasement unlikely to work.
It’s also the kind of thing that gets forgotten when it works but remembered forever when it fails. See Appeasement in international politics.
The quote dismisses argument by analogy, not rationality. Weather forecasts are not made by metaphor.
Maybe just a claim that rationality about history is hopeless.
--Napoleon Bonaparte
Or maybe just so hard that you should not expect that you have achieved it, even if your story about why something had to happen seems really compelling.