Hm… why would I buy technological-unemployment insurance? If I’m understanding the theories right, in such a scenario, income/returns to equities should increase markedly. So wouldn’t I be better off taking my premiums and buying stock market indexes? Unlike other scenarios like life insurance (where death could strike at any time and so self-insurance can be a bad idea), everyone seems to agree that there’s not going to be any such spikes within the next, say, 10 years, and that allows for a decent nest-egg to be built up.
Equities are not guaranteed to hedge this risk. Equity total returns are influenced by many factors, including: interest rates, valuation metrics, economic sensitivity, inflation, the tax regime...and on and on. Moreover, tons of research has shown that major equity indexes incorporate relevant information into their prices very quickly, so it is unlikely that you know something the market does not (see Efficient Market Hypothesis).
Equity total returns are influenced by many factors, including: interest rates, valuation metrics, economic sensitivity, inflation, the tax regime...and on and on.
Sure, but so is your insurance fund. Worse, actually, since if you structure your investments wrong you may go flat bankrupt, which would be pretty much impossible if I’m holding indices.
Moreover, tons of research has shown that major equity indexes incorporate relevant information into their prices very quickly, so it is unlikely that you know something the market does not (see Efficient Market Hypothesis).
Yes, but that’s irrelevant. In this scenario, I’m insuring, not investing. I don’t care about average or risk-adjusted returns or stuff like that, I care only that in those states of the world where there is severe technological unemployment likely affecting me, I have assets of value. So the question is, in technological unemployment scenarios (whatever their probability, howsoever they are priced into the efficient market) would my equities be worth more? I think they would.
I’ll expect your call 10 years from now.
I dunno, so far I’m not impressed by your prospectus. :)
Mac, I think you may be underestimating the level of knowledge of the other commenters here. It’s not like we haven’t heard of David Ricardo or of the EMH.
Hm… why would I buy technological-unemployment insurance? If I’m understanding the theories right, in such a scenario, income/returns to equities should increase markedly. So wouldn’t I be better off taking my premiums and buying stock market indexes? Unlike other scenarios like life insurance (where death could strike at any time and so self-insurance can be a bad idea), everyone seems to agree that there’s not going to be any such spikes within the next, say, 10 years, and that allows for a decent nest-egg to be built up.
Equities are not guaranteed to hedge this risk. Equity total returns are influenced by many factors, including: interest rates, valuation metrics, economic sensitivity, inflation, the tax regime...and on and on. Moreover, tons of research has shown that major equity indexes incorporate relevant information into their prices very quickly, so it is unlikely that you know something the market does not (see Efficient Market Hypothesis).
I’ll expect your call 10 years from now.
Sure, but so is your insurance fund. Worse, actually, since if you structure your investments wrong you may go flat bankrupt, which would be pretty much impossible if I’m holding indices.
Yes, but that’s irrelevant. In this scenario, I’m insuring, not investing. I don’t care about average or risk-adjusted returns or stuff like that, I care only that in those states of the world where there is severe technological unemployment likely affecting me, I have assets of value. So the question is, in technological unemployment scenarios (whatever their probability, howsoever they are priced into the efficient market) would my equities be worth more? I think they would.
I dunno, so far I’m not impressed by your prospectus. :)
Mac, I think you may be underestimating the level of knowledge of the other commenters here. It’s not like we haven’t heard of David Ricardo or of the EMH.