And let the division into four boxes not fool us into thinking that any is of comparable probability to the others
Indeed, the fact that we can tell an equally palusible-sounding story (the contents of each table cell) for opposite outcomes should show that the intuitive plausibility or ability to tell a story about an outcome is worthless evidence of its probability. We should demand very strong proof before trusting a model that tells us opposite outcomes are roughly equally likely.
Indeed, the fact that we can tell an equally palusible-sounding story (the contents of each table cell) for opposite outcomes should show that the intuitive plausibility or ability to tell a story about an outcome is worthless evidence of its probability. We should demand very strong proof before trusting a model that tells us opposite outcomes are roughly equally likely.
Especially when it took me about a minute to come up with all four stories...