The update to my timelines this would cause isn’t a direct “AI is advancing faster than I expected”, but an indirect “Dario makes a statement about AI progress that seems overly ambitious and clearly wrong to me, but is then proven right, which suggests he may have a better idea of what’s going on than me in other places as well, and my skepticism regarding his other overambitious-seeming statements is now more likely to be incorrect”.
Yup, agreed.
The update to my timelines this would cause isn’t a direct “AI is advancing faster than I expected”, but an indirect “Dario makes a statement about AI progress that seems overly ambitious and clearly wrong to me, but is then proven right, which suggests he may have a better idea of what’s going on than me in other places as well, and my skepticism regarding his other overambitious-seeming statements is now more likely to be incorrect”.