Why shouldn’t you want to bullshit yourself? You’ll get to believe you are the most successful man on earth, even after getting evicted. Your children will all be geniuses who will change the world, even after flunking out of high school. Your arguments will be untouchable, even after everyone else agrees you lost. Obviously, I believe said fear is highly legitimate, if the premise is true.
People who are talking bullshit do generally seem to be confused in my experience as well, but BS being caused at least in part by that confusion seems to be a highly likely scenario. Some things done in an external setting do affect similar internal processes, but not all.
An (quick and dirty) inductive argument follows:
Premise 1: It is far easier to BS than to logically analyze and respond.
Premise 2: It is far faster to BS than to logically analyze and respond.
Premise 3: People prefer to do things that are easier, ceteris paribus.
Premise 4: People prefer to do things that are faster, ceteris paribus.
Premise 5: People very strongly do not want to be wrong.
Premise 6: Losing the argument is a significant proxy for being wrong.
Premise 7: Winning the argument is a significant proxy for being right.
(Intermediate)Conclusion 1: If BS wins you the argument, you will prefer BS to logical analysis and response.
(Intermediate)Conclusion 2: If BS loses you the argument, you will regard BS far more poorly as an option.
(Intermediate)Conclusion 3: Being good enough at BS to consistently win (necessarily avoid losing) arguments drastically increases the chance you will not resort to logical analysis and response, at all.
Final Conclusion: If you BS to others, you will BS to yourself.
On the idea that it is useful to know when another is using one of the devices of blowing smoke, you are obviously correct, but it can be very tempting to misuse such knowledge simply to browbeat your opponent, when they haven’t actually done it. In a similar vein (though not directly on topic), sometimes a fallacy isn’t really a fallacy in the precise context it is within (IE sometimes the appeal to authority is legitimate in an argument, especially to settle a minor point).
I must say one thing on the idea behind all this. While the ends occasionally justify the means, the idea that rational ends are best served via irrational means is extraordinarily likely to be incorrect. More likely, an inability to properly argue your point should have you questioning your point instead.
an inability to properly argue your point should have you questioning your point instead.
When dealing with trolls, whether on the Internet or in Real Life, no matter how absolutely damn sure you are of your point, you have no time to unravel their bullshit for what it is, and if you try it you will only bore your audience and exhaust their patience. Debates aren’t battles of truth: there’s publishing papers and articles for that. Debates are battles of status. If you manage to come off as the one with higher status, people will listen more to what you said during the debate, and, more importantly, to what you said afterwards.
A very interesting way of taking advantage of this and neutralizing the effects of the dirty fighting would be to immediately afterwards publish a play-by-play analysis of the discussion, using the opportunity as an occasion to teach those who were impressed by you and went to see your work how debate really works. You could even go so far as actually listing the arguments you and your opponents use, and openly admit it if your opponent’s arguments are good enough that they have caused you to actually undertake a Bayesian update. That way, you show that:
*You’re smart, witty, and charismatic enough to win the debate.
*You’re rational, honest, and moral enough to admit to the truth afterwards.
When dealing with trolls, whether on the Internet or in Real Life, no matter how absolutely damn sure you are of your point, you have no time to unravel their bullshit for what it is, and if you try it you will only bore your audience and exhaust their patience. Debates aren’t battles of truth: there’s publishing papers and articles for that. Debates are battles of status.
I agree. There’s also the scenario where you’re talking to a reasonable person for the purpose of figuring out the truth better than either of you could do alone. That’s useful, and it’s important to be able to distinguish that from debating with trolls for the purpose of gaining status. Trolls can be recognized by how often they use rhetoric that obviously isn’t truth-seeking, and Schopenhauer is very good for that.
Well, actually, on the Internet you never gain status by debating with trolls. Even if I win an argument, I lose status to the extent my behavior justifies the conclusion “Tim wastes time posting to (LessWrong|SlashDot|whatever) instead of doing anything useful.”
My ability to identify and stonewall trolls varies. Sometimes I catch them saying something silly and refuse to continue unless they correct themselves, and that stops the time-waste pretty quickly. Sometimes I do three-strikes-and-your-out, and the time-waste stops reasonably soon. Sometimes it takes me a long time to figure out if they’re a troll, especially if they’re hinting that they know something worthwhile. I wish I had a more stable rule of thumb for doing this right. Any suggestions?
That’s okay for Internet trolls, but sometimes you’ll have to confront people in Real Life. These people won’t be aiming to make a point, they’ll be aiming to discredit you, by whatever means necessary.
When I wrote this article, one of the scenarios I had in mind was “What if I was forced to confront Bill O’Reily (or some similarly hostile, dirty opponent) on the topic of Less Wrong, and how do I not only “not lose points” but actually come out making us look even cooler than before? Bonus point if he loses status, not among those who already despise him, but among his own fans”. Ideally destroying his career, but that’s a pretty big dream.
Why shouldn’t you want to bullshit yourself? You’ll get to believe you are the most successful man on earth, even after getting evicted. Your children will all be geniuses who will change the world, even after flunking out of high school. Your arguments will be untouchable, even after everyone else agrees you lost. Obviously, I believe said fear is highly legitimate, if the premise is true.
People who are talking bullshit do generally seem to be confused in my experience as well, but BS being caused at least in part by that confusion seems to be a highly likely scenario. Some things done in an external setting do affect similar internal processes, but not all.
An (quick and dirty) inductive argument follows:
Premise 1: It is far easier to BS than to logically analyze and respond. Premise 2: It is far faster to BS than to logically analyze and respond. Premise 3: People prefer to do things that are easier, ceteris paribus. Premise 4: People prefer to do things that are faster, ceteris paribus. Premise 5: People very strongly do not want to be wrong. Premise 6: Losing the argument is a significant proxy for being wrong. Premise 7: Winning the argument is a significant proxy for being right.
(Intermediate)Conclusion 1: If BS wins you the argument, you will prefer BS to logical analysis and response. (Intermediate)Conclusion 2: If BS loses you the argument, you will regard BS far more poorly as an option. (Intermediate)Conclusion 3: Being good enough at BS to consistently win (necessarily avoid losing) arguments drastically increases the chance you will not resort to logical analysis and response, at all. Final Conclusion: If you BS to others, you will BS to yourself.
On the idea that it is useful to know when another is using one of the devices of blowing smoke, you are obviously correct, but it can be very tempting to misuse such knowledge simply to browbeat your opponent, when they haven’t actually done it. In a similar vein (though not directly on topic), sometimes a fallacy isn’t really a fallacy in the precise context it is within (IE sometimes the appeal to authority is legitimate in an argument, especially to settle a minor point).
I must say one thing on the idea behind all this. While the ends occasionally justify the means, the idea that rational ends are best served via irrational means is extraordinarily likely to be incorrect. More likely, an inability to properly argue your point should have you questioning your point instead.
When dealing with trolls, whether on the Internet or in Real Life, no matter how absolutely damn sure you are of your point, you have no time to unravel their bullshit for what it is, and if you try it you will only bore your audience and exhaust their patience. Debates aren’t battles of truth: there’s publishing papers and articles for that. Debates are battles of status. If you manage to come off as the one with higher status, people will listen more to what you said during the debate, and, more importantly, to what you said afterwards.
A very interesting way of taking advantage of this and neutralizing the effects of the dirty fighting would be to immediately afterwards publish a play-by-play analysis of the discussion, using the opportunity as an occasion to teach those who were impressed by you and went to see your work how debate really works. You could even go so far as actually listing the arguments you and your opponents use, and openly admit it if your opponent’s arguments are good enough that they have caused you to actually undertake a Bayesian update. That way, you show that:
*You’re smart, witty, and charismatic enough to win the debate.
*You’re rational, honest, and moral enough to admit to the truth afterwards.
I agree. There’s also the scenario where you’re talking to a reasonable person for the purpose of figuring out the truth better than either of you could do alone. That’s useful, and it’s important to be able to distinguish that from debating with trolls for the purpose of gaining status. Trolls can be recognized by how often they use rhetoric that obviously isn’t truth-seeking, and Schopenhauer is very good for that.
Well, actually, on the Internet you never gain status by debating with trolls. Even if I win an argument, I lose status to the extent my behavior justifies the conclusion “Tim wastes time posting to (LessWrong|SlashDot|whatever) instead of doing anything useful.”
My ability to identify and stonewall trolls varies. Sometimes I catch them saying something silly and refuse to continue unless they correct themselves, and that stops the time-waste pretty quickly. Sometimes I do three-strikes-and-your-out, and the time-waste stops reasonably soon. Sometimes it takes me a long time to figure out if they’re a troll, especially if they’re hinting that they know something worthwhile. I wish I had a more stable rule of thumb for doing this right. Any suggestions?
That’s okay for Internet trolls, but sometimes you’ll have to confront people in Real Life. These people won’t be aiming to make a point, they’ll be aiming to discredit you, by whatever means necessary.
When I wrote this article, one of the scenarios I had in mind was “What if I was forced to confront Bill O’Reily (or some similarly hostile, dirty opponent) on the topic of Less Wrong, and how do I not only “not lose points” but actually come out making us look even cooler than before? Bonus point if he loses status, not among those who already despise him, but among his own fans”. Ideally destroying his career, but that’s a pretty big dream.