This is pretty equivalent to the original Newcomb problem (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ddcsdA2c2XpNpE5x/newcomb-s-problem-and-regret-of-rationality).
FDT is not false, it’s just not applicable as it has precondition that the agent’s reasoning process and decision do not influence the probability balance between P and not-P.
This is pretty equivalent to the original Newcomb problem (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ddcsdA2c2XpNpE5x/newcomb-s-problem-and-regret-of-rationality).
FDT is not false, it’s just not applicable as it has precondition that the agent’s reasoning process and decision do not influence the probability balance between P and not-P.